We are living through a period of profound geopolitical uncertainty. Post-war norms around global stability, trade and cooperation are being challenged on a constant basis. Conflict in Ukraine continues to reshape international relationships and has far-reaching economic consequences. Tensions involving China are influencing supply chains, technology access and strategic materials. Trade disputes and tariffs are back with a vengeance, while political instability from Venezuela to the Arctic has the potential to further re-shape the international order.
From an energy perspective, this means that security of supply is rapidly rising up the agenda. Not in the abstract, but as a vital tenet of national resilience. In such an uncertain world, it is a robust level of energy security that preserves and enhances everything from economic productivity and public services to food systems and national defence.
In this era of flux and unpredictability, it would be an immense act of folly for the UK to step away from a true national asset that sits right at the heart of our energy security: our gas network.
A balanced energy policy must have three fundamental pillars: decarbonisation, security of supply and affordability. This ‘trilemma’ has for a long time been the context within which all energy policy and regulatory decisions are balanced.
Since Net Zero was announced in 2019, the trilemma has tended to lean towards decarbonisation as the main imperative. More recently, and particularly in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine, affordability has climbed the agenda as households and businesses have felt the impact of higher energy bills. But energy security – the ability to keep the lights on, homes warm and industry running– has been a more distant concern. Given the ever-changing realities we now face, it’s high time we turn our attention to protecting our energy system from the uncertainties of the future.
Energy security is about more than just accessing energy when we need to. It is also about the security that low cost, reliable energy provides to our wider economy and society, enabling us to produce products domestically when we need to and limit our exposure to global tensions.
Sadly, we are living through a time where the UK now has among the highest industrial electricity prices in the Western world. Energy-intensive industries are under immense pressure, accelerating a trend towards deindustrialisation. Fertiliser production, chemicals, steel and ceramics, sectors that underpin food security, construction and manufacturing, are being lost entirely or gradually offshored[1]. Yes, this means a loss of quality jobs and degraded local economies, but it also represents a profound weakening of national security of all kinds. Last year we came desperately close to losing all of the UK’s virgin steel capacity, as the government stepped in to save British Steel in Scunthorpe. A strategic move which could only have been a response to rising geopolitical tension.
Against this backdrop, it is worth asking what life would look like without our gas network. This is the infrastructure which underpins our economy, serving 67,000 industrial sites and nearly half a million commercial sites spread all across the country. Despite this, the decommissioning of the network is what many people view as the ultimate destination.
We should not expect a neat, orderly transition. Quite the opposite. On the coldest winter days, gas supplies most of the energy used to heat homes. It keeps the lights on during periods of ‘Dunkelflaute’ (extended periods of low renewables output). It powers industries that simply can’t electrify. Remove the gas network and our ultimate energy insurance policy is cancelled too.
It may seem counter intuitive, but as we have decarbonised the power sector, the gas network is becoming more and important for energy security. The growth of renewables has been a success that we should all welcome, but it has required gas networks to demonstrate an unprecedented level of flexibility. Gas-fired generation is no longer used in a steady and predictable manner. There are days where renewables dominate, but some days where renewables output is so low that gas demand for electricity generation is even higher than before we started to integrate renewables into the system. This is shown clearly in the graph below, courtesy of Professor Grant Wilson, CEng, MEI from the University of Birmingham.
The idea of moving away from this infrastructure has to be viewed in this context.
The gas network provides resilience in a way which is unmatched across the entire energy system. It is largely underground, protected from external threats, and designated as Critical National Infrastructure. It spans the entire country, connecting storage, import terminals, green gas connections, power stations, industry and homes. What’s more, it’s close to fully modernised following an extensive replacement programme over the last 20-25 years (the Iron Mains Risk Reduction Programme)[2].
That is why the gas network should be seen for what it is: a national asset that deserves to be cherished.
None of this is an argument against decarbonisation. The imperative to decarbonise is real, and the gas network must evolve as a result, including by transporting green gases such as biomethane and hydrogen. Electrification will mean that gas networks will ultimately be transporting less gas over the coming decades, and some of the gas network may fall away over time. However, none of this means that we should sacrifice the ultimate backstop that keeps the system stable during extreme weather, geopolitical shocks and unforeseen events.
The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero has recognised the importance of tackling these questions through its currently open consultation on gas security of supply[3]. As the system changes, we must ensure that decisions are grounded in realism, evidence and an honest assessment of risk.
Energy security may seem nebulous, but it’s as straightforward as it comes. It is about whether hospitals stay open, industry remains productive and homes stay warm. In an increasingly uncertain world, safeguarding that security means making the most of the tried and tested world class assets that we already own and use, including the UK’s gas network.
[1] https://www.oxera.com/insights/reports/evaluating-offshored-industries-and-emissions/
[3] https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/gas-system-in-transition-security-of-supply