Energy security in a turbulent world: Why home-grown gas still matters
The past few years have underscored an uncomfortable truth: the UK remains exposed to global energy market volatility. Sudden geopolitical shifts and disruptions in international oil and gas supply chains have led to sharp swings in wholesale prices and, in turn, household energy bills. As the UK strives towards net zero, decisions about our future gas system must also grapple with the question of energy security.
While low-carbon electricity remains central to the transition, a resilient and flexible, home-grown gas supply, spanning natural gas, biomethane and hydrogen, continues to play a strategically important role in keeping the lights on, homes warm and industries running during periods of peak demand.
A balanced approach to domestic gas supply
Domestic North Sea output is in long-term decline, a trend acknowledged in government assessments. However, evidence suggests that the North Sea could still deliver almost twice the volume of oil and gas currently assumed in government forecasts. Even with falling annual gas demand, peak-day requirements will remain high because gas retains a strategic role as backup during very cold, low wind conditions and must still deliver very high volumes on rare peak days.
This raises a legitimate question, not as an argument for expansive new exploration, but as a strategic consideration about how remaining recoverable North Sea volumes might contribute to resilience during peak-day stress events. Many assume this position is counter to the UK’s decarbonisation goals, however, moves by government to explore increased LNG import and storage solutions as a route to bolster energy security may be misguided given that our imported LNG has almost four times the carbon intensity of UK gas production.
The point is not to recommit the UK to long-term fossil production, but to acknowledge that efficient and responsible use of existing domestic assets can reduce import dependency during the transition period, while keeping carbon output to a minimum.
Biomethane: A strategic, home-grown, low-carbon gas
Biomethane already delivers real emissions reductions, providing a UK-produced, low-carbon alternative to fossil gas. As noted in Minister Alan Whitehead’s independent review of greenhouse gas removals, the high-purity biogenic CO2 produced during biomethane upgrading can be permanently stored once CO2 transport and storage options are in place. This means biomethane can evolve from a net zero fuel today to a carbon negative solution over time.
The case for biomethane as a vital domestic energy resource is gaining increasing traction among policymakers and energy system analysts. By utilising UK feedstocks, biomethane can strengthen security of supply, reduce emissions, and support rural economies while contributing to waste management priorities. This is backed up by credible research that biomethane should be recognised as a strategic, home-grown source of carbon-neutral gas, with the potential to deliver up to 120 TWh of UK production from sustainable, domestic feedstocks by 2050, up from 7 TWh currently produced.
The National Energy System Operator (NESO) has positioned biomethane as a whole-system solution that can be deployed now, and acknowledges that further growth of the sector should be modelled within its Future Energy Scenarios.
The advantages of biomethane extend beyond its carbon reduction contribution, it also offers major system cost savings. Analysis from Baringa suggests that scaling UK biomethane could deliver £156-£218bn in cumulative energy system savings.
International experience reinforces this. Denmark, for example, has rapidly scaled it’s biomethane production and is on track to deliver a 100% biomethane gas grid demand by 2030. It’s supportive policies and integrated system design offers valuable lessons for the UK.
Hydrogen: A future-facing component of UK energy security
Hydrogen is another important lever for energy security and decarbonisation. A position supported in all 2025 NESO Future Energy Scenarios where hydrogen is identified as a significant requirement to achieve net zero.
Industry trials demonstrate that hydrogen can be safely transported and stored using repurposed gas infrastructure, which can alleviate the curtailment of wind generation and enable large-scale seasonal energy storage. While it is not expected to play a major short-term role in gas security, analysis demonstrates its long-term strategic value to help utilise surplus renewable energy and manage exposure to global commodity price volatility.
Co-existing gas pathways for security and net zero
There is a strong case for multiple complementary gas vectors (natural gas, biomethane, hydrogen and CO₂ transport infrastructure) to coexist during the UK’s transition to a low-carbon energy system. A blended portfolio enables the UK to decarbonise progressively while maintaining resilience, affordability and flexibility. Natural gas will continue to provide dispatchable energy during the transition, particularly during peak demand events, while biomethane offers an immediately deployable, domestic source of low-carbon gas produced from UK feedstocks. Hydrogen is expected to play an increasingly important role in decarbonising harder-to-electrify sectors such as industry, dispatchable power generation and heavy transport, while CO2 transport and storage infrastructure will underpin the deployment of carbon capture technologies across power and industrial clusters.
Adopting a whole-systems approach allows the UK to maximise the value of its existing gas infrastructure. Pipelines, compressors and storage assets can be repurposed over time for hydrogen and CO2 transport, helping to reduce the cost and disruption associated with building entirely new energy networks. At the same time, increasing domestic production of biomethane and hydrogen can help insulate consumers and the wider system from volatile global energy markets.
The UK gas system also provides unique operational capabilities, particularly through linepack - the ability of the network to store energy within pipelines by adjusting pressure. This provides substantial system flexibility, delivering approximately 100 TWh of annual cumulative storage across the gas networks (with theoretical capacity significantly higher), which helps maintain system stability and supports the integration of variable renewable generation.
The ongoing conflict involving Iran has reignited debate across government, regulators and political commentators about the UK’s exposure to global energy markets and the potential knock on impacts for domestic energy prices. Disruption risks in key international supply routes have again highlighted how events beyond the UK’s control can rapidly feed through to wholesale costs, with consequences for consumers and the wider economy. Whether and how these developments influence future UK energy policy and our transition to net zero remains to be seen. However, they inevitably sharpen the focus on the value of resilience, optionality and home-grown supply, prompting renewed consideration of the role that domestic natural gas production, alongside biomethane and hydrogen, may play in strengthening energy security during an increasingly uncertain transition.